Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
