Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
